MSU Sociology faculty Saleh Ahmed discusses climate migration

November 4, 2024

This article originally ran in The State News Oct. 19, 2024.

 

Michigan cities deemed 'climate havens' aren't truly safe from climate change effects
Anna Barnes

Cities in Michigan have begun marketing themselves as climate havens, giving a sense of hope to those living in states where hurricanes, wildfires and tornadoes might be driving them out. While Michigan has been safe from the extreme weather in the US recently, climate change will bring the state its own set of issues. 

Cities like Ann Arbor have been listed as possible climate havens, but Julie Arbit, a research area specialist for the center of social sciences at the University of Michigan, thinks the term should be reevaluated. 

"They are already not climate havens," Arbit said. "It’s sort of a narrative being pushed a little bit by real estate and the news media. I think the term 'haven' is sort of problematic or irresponsible. No matter how well they're doing, how considerate they’re being, I do think there are other terms that are just more appropriate that don’t give people the false sense of security."

Arbit said cities should be focused on being climate-prepared and adaptable.

"There is no safety or refuge," Arbit said. "The core definition of a haven is like a place of safety, place of refuge and that just doesn’t exist on this planet anymore. 'Moderately-impacted climate area' doesn’t have a nice ring to it, but like a climate adaptation zone where we absolutely can and will be able to adapt."

There are issues that come with climate migration in the areas where populations may increase, like inequality. 

"Historically, people of color have only had access to certain spaces, whereas generally White and higher income communities have been able to live wherever they want," Arbit said. "If you’re looking at a migration, it’s going to be people with the mobility, with the means to move. That obviously has implications for who is unable to move from the riskiest areas and what kind of disinvestment is happening there."

As safer areas fill up with those who have the economic status to afford them, there will simply be less space to go around. In her research, Arbit specifically studies how Black and Brown communities have been displaced from their own neighborhoods.

"We’re seeing this in Detroit right now," Arbit said. "When landlords realize they can charge more, they do. You’re seeing people who have lived in a neighborhood for generations unable to afford their neighborhood. That generally does push people into riskier areas and it’s really just kind of a cycle of historical patterns."

She said Michigan should also be preparing its own infrastructure to protect climate migrants and those already living in these spaces. Summer and winter storms have been increasing in intensity in Michigan and an influx of people might add stress to poor infrastructure, Arbit said. 

"The storms are getting stronger and it is getting hotter actually at a faster rate than the south," she said. "The north is changing much faster and undergoing more change in the people and the infrastructure up here is just not built for it."

Arbit also said those who are migrating to Michigan are probably used to different kinds of weather events and might not have the generational knowledge and life experience to be resilient in the Michigan climate. When there are weather events, locals know the actions they need to take, where to get help and how to mitigate damage, and migrants will not. 

Derek Van Berkel, an assistant professor at the school for environment and sustainability at U of M, said climate migration includes people who are avoiding the future risks and those who are forced to move. He said while he’s unsure Michigan will actually be a destination for climate migrants, there is evidence that people are moving to the state and weather could be a factor.  

Access to fresh water is a selling point and cities are trying to market themselves as havens, but we need to keep in mind the climate challenges Michigan is going to face, he said.

"Obviously there are many, many scenarios where we’re going to have similar challenges," Van Berkel said. "There’s going to be an increasing frequency and intensity of rain which will cause flooding."

Van Berkel said during the pandemic there was a noticeable increase in amenity migration. People wanted to move out of cities and into more rural areas. While there is some evidence of climate being the cause of migration, it’s not strong and it's not yet reversing the trend of stagnant population in the great lakes states. 

"Everybody is looking at Milton and Helene and thinking, like, maybe this is one of those triggers," Van Berkel said. "This is a huge country, there’s many great places to move. I see it is a very attractive place to live, but also Asheville kind of had this notion that it would be very attractive."

Asheville, North Carolina was one of the cities hit hardest by Helene, but had been referred to as a climate haven in the past. Overall, Van Berkel said, planning is the most important thing, and if done incorrectly, he agrees inequalities could increase among vulnerable populations.

"You can think about things like gentrification and maybe haphazard development of housing," Van Berkel said. "If that happens, then these vulnerabilities with existing populations that are already vulnerable could be exasperated."

Van Berkel said he’s more positive about the possibility of migration. He said if we were to design a planning process that includes a diversity of people, solutions can be reached with consideration for all communities. 

"I think there’s a good opportunity there for creating sustainable, resilient and equitable communities," Van Berkel said. "It could be a part of a reinvigoration."

Saleh Ahmed, an assistant professor in the department of sociology at Michigan State University, does work with climate migration focused on the global south.

Ahmed's family in Bangladesh has had to move six times over the generations due to flooding from tropical cyclones. He said because the U.S. is so big with a low population density, we don’t realize how often people are moving compared to countries in the global south, but it happens. 

"It’s not entirely a new concept," Ahmed said. "This is not an entirely new phenomena even within us, we just didn’t pay much attention because we had some flexibility with the land, with the resources."

Ahmed once lived in Boise, Idaho, and said as the population grew, prices increased, and those living there before the influx were being forced further and further out. He stressed the importance of proactive planning in place of reactive planning, which cities often end up doing after a crisis begins. He said small and medium-sized cities will most likely be hit the worst. 

Ahmed said migration is not inherently bad, and the increase in tax base can result in critical infrastructure like hospitals and schools. He said if cities would consider the needs of the community when preparing, they can protect those living there before the population increases.

"Migration in countries like the US, it actually brings diversity, brings economic opportunities and brings talent," Ahmed said.

Ahmed said it’s important to learn from global experience and failed case studies, not just success stories, so we can learn from the mistakes made in similar situations and better our planning.

"This phenomenon of climate migration is actually right now I would say a global crisis," he said. "A global crisis that might be kind of unknown for a large share of American citizens."